Disease burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2031 in China

Zhong Zheng; Shaojie Xu; Jicun Zhu; Qian Yang; Hua Ye; Meng Li; Xiaoyue Zhang; Haiyan Liu; Yifan Cheng; Yuanlin Zou; Yin Lu; Peng Wang

doi:10.1016/j.canep.2024.102725

Disease burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2031 in China

Cancer Epidemiol. 2024 Dec 20:94:102725. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102725. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Zhong Zheng¹, Shaojie Xu², Jicun Zhu³, Qian Yang⁴, Hua Ye¹, Meng Li¹, Xiaoyue Zhang¹, Haiyan Liu¹, Yifan Cheng¹, Yuanlin Zou¹, Yin Lu¹, Peng Wang⁵

Affiliations

¹ College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450001, China; Henan Key Laboratory of Tumor Epidemiology and State Key Laboratory of Esophageal Cancer Prevention & Treatment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450052, China.
² Department of Nursing, the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450052, China.
³ Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450052, China.
⁴ Prenatal Diagnosis Center, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University/Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450052, China.
⁵ College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450001, China; Henan Key Laboratory of Tumor Epidemiology and State Key Laboratory of Esophageal Cancer Prevention & Treatment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province 450052, China. Electronic address: wangpeng1658@hotmail.com.

PMID: 39708577
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102725

Abstract

Background: High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been indicated as one of the important risk factors for cancers. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the burden until 2031.

Methods: The data of cancers attributable to HFPG were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 project. A joinpoint regression model was conducted to estimate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. The effects of age, period, and cohort were estimated by an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Lastly, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden for the next decade.

Results: From 1990-2021, cancer deaths attributable to HFPG in China increased by 232 % (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 156-330.77 %), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased by 195.4 % (95 % UI: 127.38-289.7 %). In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were 0.6364 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.4234-0.8498 %) and 0.6263 % (95 % CI: 0.3024-0.9512 %), respectively. Among all cancer types, pancreatic cancer had the largest increase in disease burden. The risks of mortality and DALYs increased with age, while showing initial rapid increase with period growth followed by relative stabilization. The cohort effect indicates that males born later had higher risks of mortality and DALYs. Finally, despite a continuous decline in both ASMR and ASDR, the numbers of deaths and DALYs were projected to continue increasing in the next decade.

Conclusions: The disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG significantly increased from 1990 to 2021 in China, and the numbers of deaths and DALYs would continuously increase in the next decade. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce targeted policies controlling the disease burden.

Keywords: China; GBD; cancer; disease burden; high fasting plasma glucose.