Development of a nomogram for individualized prediction of acute gastrointestinal injury in polytrauma patients

BMC Res Notes. 2024 Dec 23;17(1):378. doi: 10.1186/s13104-024-07066-2.

Abstract

Objective: Previous reports have indicated the occurrence of acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) in critically ill individuals. Yet, there is limited information regarding the frequency and potential causes of AGI in individuals with polytrauma. The complicated diagnostic tools often mistaken and mislead the evaluation of AGI. The objective of this research is to create a nomogram that can predict the likelihood of AGI in individuals with polytrauma.

Results: Among 836 polytrauma patients, AGI occurred in 61.2%, significantly higher than the 9.5% in monotrauma patients (P < 0.001).The predictors included Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 16, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) < 8, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) > 16, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) > 5, presence of shock, lactate level > 3.2, and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) > 40 in the individualized prediction nomogram. The nomogram showed good discrimination (C-index = 0.719) and satisfactory calibration.

Keywords: Acute Gastrointestinal Injury; Nomogram; Polytrauma; Retrospective analysis; Risk factors.

MeSH terms

  • APACHE
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Female
  • Gastrointestinal Diseases / complications
  • Gastrointestinal Diseases / diagnosis
  • Glasgow Coma Scale
  • Humans
  • Injury Severity Score
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multiple Trauma* / complications
  • Multiple Trauma* / diagnosis
  • Nomograms*
  • Organ Dysfunction Scores
  • Retrospective Studies