Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the impact mechanisms of carbon stock changes in different land use types in the arid zone and simulating future changes in land use and carbon stock under different scenarios will help to formulate a scientific land use policy for the arid zone to promote high-quality and sustainable development in the region. Based on the Xinjiang land use data from 2000 to 2020, the coupled PLUS-InVEST model analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 and predicted the changes in land use and carbon stock in Xinjiang in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development （Z1）, economic development （Z2）, sustainable development （Z3）, arable land preservation development （Z4）, and ecological protection development （Z5）. The results showed that ① From 2000 to 2020, the total value of carbon stock in Xinjiang showed an overall decreasing trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a total decrease of 4.268 2×108 t. The large amount of grassland degraded into unutilized land was the main reason for the decrease in carbon stock in Xinjiang. ② Analysis of the contribution rate of carbon stock changes in different land use types showed that the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in cropland, forest land, grassland, watersheds, and unutilized land were natural factors, and the main influencing factors for carbon stock changes in construction land were humanistic and economic. Additionally, the reasons for the changes in carbon stock in Xinjiang were the result of the joint influence of natural factors and humanistic and economic factors. ③ Compared with that in 2020, the five development scenarios of Xinjiang in 2030 kept the trend of increasing carbon stock, among which the sustainable development （Z3） scenario increased 66.723 6×106 t the most. This was the optimal development mode to increase the carbon stock of Xinjiang in the future and consider economic development. The results of the above study can provide a theoretical basis for the future spatial planning of Xinjiang and the realization of the goal of "carbon neutrality".
Keywords: PLUS-InVEST model; Xinjiang; analysis of the contribution; carbon stock; land use.