Accurately capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional forest cover and its response to climate change is of great significance for forest resource management and ecological environment protection. We used statistical methods such us linear regression and correlation analysis, as well as remote sensing change monitoring to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest cover and its response to climate change from 2000 to 2022 in Shandong Province based on MODIS VCF products and meteorological data. The results showed that the forest co-verage and forest area in Shandong Province increased from 43.0% and 197.06×104 hm2 in 2000 to 43.1% and 326.08×104 hm2 in 2022, respectively. Spatially, forest coverage grew stepwise from the southwest and northwest to the center and east of Shandong. 90.6% of the forest area of Shandong Province experienced a relative increase in forest cover during 2000-2022. Most of the increased area was concentrated in the central southern mountains and hills and the eastern low mountains and hills. The area expansion of forest cover was primarily located in the lowland areas of Liaocheng, Dezhou, Heze, Jining, and Binzhou, which accounted for 52.3% of the provincial forest area. There was a positive correlation between forest coverage and air temperature, but a negative correlation between forest coverage and precipitation. Air temperature was the main climatic factor influencing the shift in forest coverage during the study period.
精确掌握区域尺度森林覆盖时空动态及其对气候变化的响应,对森林资源监测和生态环境保护至关重要。基于2000—2022年MODIS VCF产品和气象数据,利用线性回归、相关分析和遥感变化监测相结合的方法,研究近23年山东省森林覆盖时空动态及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明: 山东省森林覆盖度和面积分别由2000年的43.0%和197.06万hm2增加到2022年的43.1%和326.08万hm2。在空间分布上,森林覆盖度由鲁西南、鲁西北向鲁中、鲁东递增,90.6%区域的森林覆盖度呈增加趋势,其中,显著升高区域集中分布在鲁中南山地丘陵、鲁东低山丘陵等地区。森林面积以扩张为主(52.3%),主要位于聊城市、德州市、菏泽市、济宁市、滨州市等平原地带。森林覆盖度与气温以正相关为主,而与降水量主要表现为负相关,研究期间气温是影响森林覆盖度变化的主要气候因素。.
Keywords: MODIS VCF data; climate change; forest area; forest coverage; spatial analysis method.