Global, regional, and national trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus burden among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2021: a trend analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Si-Te Xu; Mu Sun; Yu Xiang

doi:10.1007/s12519-024-00861-8

Global, regional, and national trends in type 2 diabetes mellitus burden among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2021: a trend analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

World J Pediatr. 2025 Jan 3. doi: 10.1007/s12519-024-00861-8. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Si-Te Xu¹, Mu Sun², Yu Xiang³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Statistics, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China.
² Department of Statistics, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China. schuster_ter@163.com.
³ Department of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Shanghai Institute of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200025, China. 18211020105@fudan.edu.cn.

PMID: 39752048
DOI: 10.1007/s12519-024-00861-8

Abstract

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses an escalating public health challenge among adolescents and young adults worldwide. Despite the rising incidence, comprehensive data on the burden and trends of T2DM in this demographic remain scarce. This study aims to evaluate the burden of T2DM among individuals aged 10-24 years globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we assessed incidence rates, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) for T2DM in the specified age group. Analyses accounted for variations by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression analysis identified years of significant trend shifts.

Results: The global incidence of T2DM among adolescents and young adults rose from 56.02 per 100,000 (95% UI 43.03-72.32) in 1990 to 123.86 per 100,000 (95% UI 100.43-149.79) in 2021, reflecting an AAPC of 3.01 (95% CI 2.78-3.23). Notable increases were recorded in 1995, 2002, and 2009, with joinpoints indicating significant trend stabilization post-2010 for prevalence and DALYs. The largest relative incidence increase was observed in the 15-19 age group [AAPC 2.97 (95% CI 2.71-3.24)]. Although T2DM mortality was 2.4 times higher in the 15-19 age group compared to the 20-24 age group, the latter exhibited a significantly higher overall mortality rate. Regionally, Oceania recorded the highest incidence rates in 2021, while North Africa and the Middle East showed the greatest AAPCs. High-SDI countries experienced the most substantial increase in T2DM burden, with males comprising 54.8% of cases.

Conclusions: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of T2DM among adolescents and young adults has markedly increased, underscoring the necessity for targeted, region-specific interventions to address this issue. The observed demographic disparities in mortality rates necessitate the implementation of age-specific strategies. Furthermore, the emergent trends in T2DM indicators warrant urgent attention to mitigate the rising burden in this vulnerable population.

Keywords: Adolescent; Burden; GBD; T2DM; Trend analysis.