Risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles in the United Kingdom: Revisited and reanalysed

Chun-Chieh Chao; Hon-Ping Ma; Li Wei; Yen-Nung Lin; Chenyi Chen; Wafaa Saleh; Bayu Satria Wiratama; Akhmad Fajri Widodo; Shou-Chien Hsu; Shih Yu Ko; Hui-An Lin; Cheng-Wei Chan; Chih-Wei Pai

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0315692

Risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles in the United Kingdom: Revisited and reanalysed

PLoS One. 2025 Jan 3;20(1):e0315692. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0315692. eCollection 2025.

Authors

Chun-Chieh Chao^{1

2

3}, Hon-Ping Ma^{1

3

4}, Li Wei^{1

5

6}, Yen-Nung Lin^{1

7}, Chenyi Chen¹, Wafaa Saleh⁸, Bayu Satria Wiratama⁹, Akhmad Fajri Widodo¹, Shou-Chien Hsu^{10

11}, Shih Yu Ko⁴, Hui-An Lin^{1

2

3}, Cheng-Wei Chan^{1

10

12

13}, Chih-Wei Pai¹

Affiliations

¹ Graduate Institute of Injury Prevention and Control, College of Public Health, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan.
² Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei City, Taiwan.
³ Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁴ Department of Emergency Medicine, Taipei Medical University-Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
⁵ Taipei Neuroscience Institute, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁶ Department of Surgery, Division of Neurosurgery, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷ Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁸ Transport Research Institute, Edinburgh Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
⁹ Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Population Health, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta City, Indonesia.
¹⁰ Department of Emergency Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Branch, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
¹¹ Department of Occupational Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Branch, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
¹² Department of Emergency Medicine, New Taipei City Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan.
¹³ College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan.

Abstract

Background and objective: Relevant research has provided valuable insights into risk factors for bicycle crashes at intersections. However, few studies have focused explicitly on three common types of bicycle crashes on road segments: overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes. This study aims to identify risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes that occur on road segments.

Material and methods: We analysed British STATS19 accident records from 1991 to 2020. Using multivariate logistic regression models, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for multiple risk factors. The analysis included 127,637 bicycle crashes, categorised into 18,350 overtaking, 44,962 rear-end, 6,363 door, and 57,962 other crashes.

Results: Significant risk factors for overtaking crashes included heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) as crash partners (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.27-1.33), and elderly crash partners (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.94-2.09), and decreased risk in rural area with speed limits of 20-30 miles per hour (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.43-0.47). For rear-end crashes, noteworthy risk factors included unlit darkness (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.40-1.57) and midnight hours (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21-1.40). Factors associated with door crashes included urban areas (AOR = 16.2, 95% CI = 13.5-19.4) and taxi or private hire cars (AOR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.57-1.69). Our joint-effect analysis revealed additional interesting results; for example, there were elevated risks for overtaking crashes in rural areas with elderly drivers as crash partners (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.79-3.08) and with HGVs as crash partners (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI = 2.46-2.78).

Conclusions: The aforementioned risk factors remained largely unchanged since 2011, when we conducted our previous study. However, the present study concluded that the detrimental effects of certain variables became more pronounced in certain situations. For example, cyclists in rural settings exhibited an elevated risk of overtaking crashes involving HGVs as crash partners.

Copyright: © 2025 Chao et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

MeSH terms

Accidents, Traffic* / statistics & numerical data
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Bicycling* / statistics & numerical data
Female
Humans
Logistic Models
Male
Middle Aged
Odds Ratio
Risk Factors
United Kingdom / epidemiology
Young Adult

Grants and funding

This study was financially supported by grants from the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan (MOST 109-2314-B-038-066-); the National Science and Technology Council, Taiwan (NSTC 112-2410-H-038-023-MY2; NSTC 110-2410-H-038-016-MY2) and New Taipei City Hospital (NTPC 113-002). The funders had no role in the design of the study, data collection and analysis, interpretation of data, or preparation of the manuscript.