Association between physical multimorbidity in middle adulthood and mortality: findings from two large cohort studies in Japan

BMC Public Health. 2025 Jan 8;25(1):92. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-21166-5.

Abstract

Background: While previous literature suggests that multimorbidity is linked to a higher risk of mortality, evidence is scarce among individuals in middle adulthood. We aimed to examine the association between physical multimorbidity and all-cause mortality among individuals aged 40-64 years at baseline in Japan.

Methods: Data were obtained from two cohort studies, the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (JPHC) and the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study (J-ECOH). The study participants were 144,774 individuals aged 40-64 years at baseline who were followed up for a maximum of 29 and 10 years in the JPHC and J-ECOH, respectively. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of ≥ 2 of 10 morbidities or conditions based on self-reported information. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association in relation to all-cause mortality. We calculated pooled hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects meta-analysis model. Cause-specific analysis was performed using the JPHC dataset, which provided a sufficient number of events for mortality due to physical disorders, mental disorders/suicide, and unintentional injuries.

Results: During a follow-up of 2,304,375 person-years in the JPHC and 311,637 person-years in the J-ECOH, 23,611 and 275 deaths were recorded, respectively. Participants with vs. without physical multimorbidity at baseline were more likely to die prematurely in both cohorts with a pooled HR of 1.61 (95%CI = 1.29-2.01). Cause-specific analyses among the JPHC participants revealed that physical multimorbidity at baseline was linked with mortality due to physical disorders, mortality due to mental disorders/suicide, and mortality due to unintentional injuries.

Conclusions: Physical multimorbidity in middle adulthood is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in Japan.

Keywords: Cause of death; Japan; Multimorbidity; Prospective studies.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Cause of Death
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality / trends
  • Multimorbidity*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prospective Studies