Survival and quality of life in patients with protracted recovery from cardiac surgery. Can we predict poor outcome?

Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 1995;9(8):426-31; discussion 431-2. doi: 10.1016/s1010-7940(05)80077-6.

Abstract

Of all the 2256 adult cardiac surgical patients operated upon during a 12-month period from 1st February 1992 in three units, only 162 (7.2%) spent more than 48 h in the intensive care unit (ICU) (median 6 days, range 3-90). There were 47 deaths in ICU, 7 more before hospital discharge, and a further 10 before the study end-point of one year after surgery. All 98 1-year survivors were at home with 86 of them reporting their quality of life, on formal evaluation, to be within the reference range which we have established for a less complicated cohort of cardiac surgical patients. Prospectively collected physiological measurements were used in a mathematical model to test how well we could predict which patients will die and which of the survivors have a poor quality of life. The algorithm performs well for cardiac surgery patients with a specificity of 98%. If treatment had been withdrawn when death or poor quality of life became predictable, the maximum number of ICU bed days that could be freed was of the order of 2%. The plight of these patients is distressing, but most survive and do well and they are infrequent compared with the large majority who survive to leave hospital after a short ICU stay.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • Cause of Death*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Critical Care*
  • England / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Heart Diseases / mortality
  • Heart Diseases / surgery*
  • Hospital Mortality*
  • Humans
  • Length of Stay / statistics & numerical data
  • Life Support Care / statistics & numerical data
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Multiple Organ Failure / mortality
  • Multiple Organ Failure / therapy
  • Postoperative Complications / mortality*
  • Postoperative Complications / therapy
  • Prospective Studies
  • Quality of Life*
  • Severity of Illness Index*
  • Survival Analysis