Background: Progression of coronary artery disease is assumed to be a surrogate end point for clinical coronary events. Because no single method or measure for a coronary angiographic end point is uniformly accepted as optimal, the utility and validity of surrogate end points for predicting clinical coronary events remain unsettled.
Methods and results: The Cholesterol Lowering Atherosclerosis Study randomized 162 nonsmoking, 40- to 59-year-old men with previous coronary artery bypass graft surgery to colestipol/niacin plus diet or placebo plus diet. Atherosclerosis change on 2-year coronary angiograms was evaluated by a consensus panel and by quantitative coronary angiography (average per-subject change in percent diameter stenosis [%S] and minimum lumen diameter [MLD). With all three end points, the benefit of colestipol/niacin treatment on coronary artery atherosclerosis has been reported. Annual follow-up for an average of 7 years (range, 6.3 months to 10 years) has been carried out on all subjects who completed the 2-year angiogram. Clinical coronary events (need for revascularization, nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, and coronary death) have been documented. Risk of clinical coronary events was positively related to coronary lesion progression for all three surrogate end points (P<.05). New lesion formation in bypass grafts (P=.02) and progression of mild/moderate lesions ( < 50%S) were predictive of clinical coronary events (P<.01). Change in MLD contributed significantly to the prediction of clinical coronary events beyond a model with %S alone (P<.05).
Conclusions: In this population of nonsmoking men with previous bypass surgery, both the consensus panel- and quantitative coronary angiography-based end points of coronary artery disease progression predict clinical coronary events. Subjects who demonstrate greater coronary artery lesion progression have an increased risk of future clinical coronary events. Design of shorter, smaller trials of antiatherosclerotic agents is justified.