Introduction: We hypothesized that fuzzy logic could be used for pharmacokinetic modeling. Our objectives were to develop and evaluate a model for predicting serum lithium concentrations with fuzzy logic.
Methods: Steady-state pharmacokinetic data had been previously collected in 10 elderly patients (age range, 67 to 80 years) with depression who were receiving lithium once daily. Each patient had serial serum lithium concentration determinations over one 24-hour period. The resulting 137 data sets initially consisted of five input variables (age, weight, serum creatinine, lithium dose, and time since last dose) and one output variable (serum lithium concentration; range, 0.2 to 1.24 mmol/L).
Results: A fuzzy rulebase was created with 87 randomly chosen data sets, and predictions of serum lithium concentration were made on the basis of the remaining 50 data sets. All of the input variables except age and weight were identified as contributing to the fuzzy logic model. The average magnitude of the error in the predictions was 0.13 mmol/L (root mean squared error) with a bias (mean of the prediction errors) of 0.03 mmol/L.
Conclusions: This study indicates that the use of fuzzy logic for pharmacokinetic modeling of lithium for serum concentration predictions is feasible.