Objective: The aim of this study was to assess predictive factors for the progression to liver cirrhosis in hepatitis C.
Methods: One hundred thirty six patients (79 men; 57 women; mean age 39 years) with transfusion or intravenous drug use-associated hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were studied. Sex, cause of infection, duration of contamination, and genotype were studied as predictive factors of progression to liver cirrhosis.
Results: One hundred twenty three patients presented with chronic hepatitis without cirrhosis and 13 had cirrhosis. At the time of liver biopsy, rates of cirrhosis were: 0% before 40 years, 10% between 40 and 60 years, and 47% after 60 years. (p < 0.05). Rates of cirrhosis according to the age at the time of contamination were as follows: 3% before 30 years; 16% between 30 and 50 years; 46% after 50 years even though duration of the disease was comparable in the three groups. In multivariate analysis, two independent factors were associated with liver cirrhosis: age at contamination and duration of infection.
Conclusion: Duration of infection and especially age at contamination seem better correlated with the probability of cirrhosis than the route of transmission or the genotype 1b. The results of this study suggest that progression to cirrhosis is slower in cases of contamination before 30 years of age than later on. Age at the time of contamination is an important predictive factor of progression to cirrhosis.